UK Election Analysis #3: Focus on Energy Markets

On May 22, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a surprise General Election for July 4, 2024. Here’s the latest on opinion polls and implications for energy markets:

Opinion Poll Insights:

  • Labour Leads: Labour at 37%, Reform UK at 19%, Conservatives at 18%, Liberal Democrats at 14%, Greens at 7%, and SNP at 3%.
  • Voting System Impact: The first-past-the-post system means vote shares don’t directly translate to seats.
  • MRP Polls: Conservatives could win as few as 53 seats. Labour may secure a strong majority with 425 seats.

Energy Market Implications:

  • Current Mix: 40% wind, 30% gas, 14% nuclear, 13% imports, 1% coal.
  • Labour’s Plan: Expand onshore wind farms, create Great British Energy with £8.3bn investment, and boost green industries with a £7.3bn National Wealth Fund.
  • International Relations: Ongoing UK-Germany energy projects and the North Seas Energy Cooperation will likely continue to develop.

Read our full analysis here.