This year’s MSC may go down in history as another geopolitical turning point having taken place in the Bavarian capital. 

In our MSC review and 2025 geopolitical outlook “Present at destruction?” BGA Managing Partner, Martin Wiesmann and Director for Geopolitics, Moritz Lütgerath ask whether we are witnessing the self-destruction of the US-led international system and provide an outlook for what the Trump administration’s policies may mean in key geopolitical theaters. 

 Key Messages from this year’s report include: 

• America – Facing strategic insolvency: The withdrawal of the US from its role of security provider and consumer of last resort will fuel global disintegration and create geopolitical space for non-Western powers.
• Europe – Shock Therapy: The old continent is being put under maximum pressure by losing the US security guarantee and easy access to the US market and has yet to find a commensurate response to these challenges.
• Ukraine – Yalta once more? Trump’s desire for a quick cease-fire deal is raising Putin’s hopes of extending a sphere of influence over Ukraine and rewriting the European security architecture. The reversal of strategy towards NATO prospect Ukraine and rogue Russia is unprecedented.
• China – „Adult in the room“?  Amid transatlantic disunity and Trump’s disruption, China sees an opportunity to opportunistically expand its geopolitical and economic power and close in on Taiwan.
• Middle East – Searching for a new order: Amid a return of Trump’s maximum pressure tactics, risks of a conflict over Iran’s nuclear capabilities is rising.

Read the full report here: 2025_02_19_BGA_2025_Geopolitical_Outlook