BGA Cable

BGA Cable: Brexit Endspiel – Vier Szenarien

Click to download PDF-Version (in German language) Am 14. November ist der Text des Brexitvertrags bekannt geworden, auf den sich die EU und Großbritannien geeinigt haben. Bevor er in Kraft treten kann, muss er die politische Billigung beider Seiten erhalten. Auf EU-Seite ist die Zustimmung des Europäischen Rates und des Europäischen Parlaments erforderlich. Der Rat …

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BGA Cable: The Trump – Putin Summit

Click to download PDF-Version Bull meets Bear The Situation The US and Russia are speaking again. That is the chief message of the Helsinki summit. While the summit did not bring any breakthrough, it did improve the atmosphere. However, the actual results are meagre and open to interpretation:  Renewed commitment to a reduction in nuclear …

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BGA Cable: On the Brink of a Trade War

Click to download PDF-Version New tariffs further the official disruption of the international trade order The Situation Friends and foes alike have found themselves in the crosshairs of US trade tariffs. They have responded by fighting back through retaliatory measures as the European Union, China, Canada, Mexico, and Russia in particular, have either issued counter …

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BGA Cable: Global Trade

US fires opening shot in global trade war The US opened the door to a global trade war this week by putting into effect punitive tariffs on steel & aluminium imports mainly from China, but also Russia and a number of smaller countries. Key allies in Europe, Asia & Latin America are so far exempt …

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BGA Cable: Europe

Italy: Stuck in time The Italian general election produced the widely feared political stalemate as M5S surged ahead taking 32% of the public vote. The centre-right coalition gained only 36% of the vote with Lega coming well ahead of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. On the left, the ruling PD fell to under 20% burying the hopes …

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BGA Cable: Germany

  A minority government in Germany?  With the collapse of the “Jamaica“ negotiations, BGA now sees a 40% probability of new elections in March or April 2018 (up from 25%).  BGA estimates a 40% likelihood for a CDU/Merkel-led minority government supported by SPD, Greens and/or FDP.   Other potential outcomes and their respective probabilities: 10% for a Merkel-led …

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