Europe: “It can die.” – BGA analysis on the outcome and possible repercussions of the EU Elections 2024

The upcoming European elections have been the subject of much commentary and prediction. Many forecasts expect gains for right-wing parties, while centrist parties are expected to lose seats. But will the Right truly become more influential? Who will ultimately hold power in the European Parliament?

To understand the context of these elections, our outlook provides an analysis of the economic and geopolitical challenges Europe currently faces. Building on this foundation, we assess the potential impact of several possible election outcomes on the distribution of power in the EP.

Additionally, our briefing includes an overview of the candidates and key issues for German parties and European political groups.


Key Points

  • Europe is not recovering as well as other regions from recent crises, whilst at the same time, facing
    a worsening geopolitical and economic landscape.

  • In the European elections, parties to the right of the EPP will gain; their influence will in part depend
    upon their ability to overcome fragmentation. Although shrinking in seats, Greens and RE may maintain political weight as part of an overall weakened informal centrist left parliamentary coalition.

  • Whilst the real turning point for the climate agenda may prove to be the 2029 elections, pressure on
    green deal implementation will mount already with expected outcome of this election, further driven
    by lasting political shifts in France, Italy and Spain.


Read our full analysis here: Berlin Global Advisors – Europe: “It can die.”