Looking ahead: Geopolitical Risks going into the fourth quarter

The brutal terrorist attacks launched by Hamas last Saturday morning are a powerful reminder as to how geopolitical shifts can trigger deep and unresolved conflicts to erupt taking even the most sophisticated intelligence service by surprise.

• Diplomatic initiatives by the US to broker an accord between Israel, Saudi-Arabia and the Palestinians are being disrupted
• Escalation risks are high given Hamas’ backing by Iran, the huge pressure on the Israeli military to clear Gaza from Hamas terrorists and numerous hostages taken not only from Israel but also amongst US nationals
• A large-scale ground offensive into the Gaza Strip would further increase risks of Hezbollah involvement and the possibility of a two-front war
• Israel ordering a shutdown of one of its off-shore gas fields near Gaza has added to commodity price pressure with in particular gas jumping double digit.

 

Please read the full year-end outlook prepared by Berlin Global Advisors: Geopolitics Update Q4 2023

 

Authors: Martin Wiesmann | Jan F. Kallmorgen | Moritz Luetgerath