A minority government in Germany?
- With the collapse of the “Jamaica“ negotiations, BGA now sees a 40% probability of new elections in March or April 2018 (up from 25%).
- BGA estimates a 40% likelihood for a CDU/Merkel-led minority government supported by SPD, Greens and/or FDP.
- Other potential outcomes and their respective probabilities: 10% for a Merkel-led grand coalition with the SPD; 10% for a revived “Jamaica” coalition between CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens.
The ball is in the court of Federal President Frank Walter Steinmeier, who will be speaking to the chairmen of all involved political parties this week after he called on them publicly to take on their responsibility to govern and avoid new elections.
Decisively, Steinmeier will meet with SPD Chairman Martin Schulz this Thursday (23 November). Much will depend on the outcome of this conversation: Schulz has declared several times – backed by the entire party leadership – that he will not re-enter into a “Grand” coalition with the CDU. While Schulz can hardly do a 180-degree turn, Steinmeier – a key SPD figure himself – might be able to convince Schulz to tolerate a CDU-led minority government by appealing to his statesmanship and the responsibility of the SPD as Germany’s oldest party.
Before Fidelity, he worked for Deutsche Bank in London and as Deputy Head of Credit Risk for the BIS in Basel, where he advised central banks and regulators on bank capital and risk management.